Will more businesses split from California over Tom Steyer’s split roll threat?

When compared to other states, there are very few favorable metrics for businesses in California. The tax and regulatory burdens are heavy and much of the well-documented exodus from California is from businesses owners who have had enough.

One of the few bright spots for those doing business in California is that the property tax burden is relatively reasonable. Even though the state ranks 18th in per capita property tax collections, at least we’re not the worst. (Being “not worst” is a remarkable achievement for the Golden State.)

It also helps that Proposition 13 is in the state constitution, giving it better protection against the vagaries of the political class. Even better, Prop. 13 remains very popular among California voters. A poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California revealed that at least 60% of Californians viewed Prop. 13 as “mostly a good thing.”

Efforts to weaken Prop. 13 have a history of failure. But that doesn’t stop the radical left from trying.

Cognizant of Prop. 13’s popularity, especially among homeowners fearful of being taxed out of their homes, progressives think that the best strategy is to divide and conquer by targeting businesses such as those “evil corporations” like Chevron and Disney. (Who knew that Mickey Mouse was so dangerous?)

But they’ve tried this before, most recently in 2020 and, again, came up short losing by about 4 percentage points.

Not taking no for an answer, Tom Steyer, who is a candidate for governor, believes that the “split roll” scheme is his winning ticket. Notwithstanding the fact that “split roll” is the unholy grail for progressives, Steyer needs to educate himself on this issue, as an editorial in this publication pointed out just last week.

But it’s not just the policy that Steyer has wrong. Before taking on this issue, he needs to understand why the 2020 effort failed when, by all rights, that was the best possible election cycle for progressives to win the split roll issue.

First, the 2020 general election had very high turnout because of the divisive presidential contest. If split roll can’t pass when Trump is on the ballot, what makes Steyer think it can succeed when he is not?

Second, proponents of the 2020 effort had seemingly limitless campaign funds. Steyer may be a billionaire, but more recently, center-right billionaires are taking a far greater interest in California politics than they have in the past.

Third, proponents assumed that the highly favorable (deceptive) ballot label that didn’t mention “tax increase” would be helpful to their cause. It probably was, but not enough when the counterargument explained that Prop. 13 was under attack.